Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Dec 10, 2023

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Is TSMC Leaving Samsung in the Dust with its New 3nm Process Technology?
• Our Pick Himax a Top Loser… Apple Lens Supplier, Yageo Peer, and Taiwan AI Chip Designer Top Winners
• Positive Sign for Apple Revenue — Hon Hai November Revenue Higher Than Expected, Guides for Better December

By Patrick Liao

• Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has rebounded from the bottom of the cycle, and it will be able to reach more than 20% YoY in 2024F.
• The demand for 4G and 5G Smartphone SoC will be split around 55/45 by shipment volume, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) being the primary supplier for MediaTek.
• The MediaTek Dimensity 6000 series will be the new flagship product line in 2024F.

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period
• Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ
• China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. 

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

• The shares are down 27% from their May high, largely discounting excessive inventory and a decline in profits that is likely to continue through next March or June.
• Inventory adjustment, the revival of semiconductor, factory automation and medical related demand, plus the leveling off of depreciation, should enable a return to growth after that. 
• Projected valuations are at the low end of their 10-year ranges. Buy into the current weakness, keeping in mind that 1Q results are likely to be weak.

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• ~$900 million supercomputer deal is off the charts compared to all previous deals
• Without the deal, Cerebras would likely soon have run out of cash. With the deal, Cerebras is effectively working as a supercomputer contractor for G42 for the next several years
• Three supercomputers to be built in the US, we suspect the remaining six to be built in the UAE. That’s likely to raise some eyebrows. 

By Andrew Lu

• More clear y/y improvement for 8/12″ raw wafer, WiFi IC, GaAs RF/VCSEL, and memory vendors but more y/y deterioration for OLED/LCD driver, LCD panel, design service, equipment/materials, and foundry vendors.
• GaAs RF and gaming GPU card vendors showed very impressive y/y sales growth of 54% and 63%, respectively. ABF substrate vendors showed the weakest sales decline of 34% among all.
• Except A Data (+2.5% m/m) and Phison Electronics (+5.6% m/m) might see stronger share price to reflect stronger November sales, most of others see good/bad news in the price already.

By Patrick Liao

• On December 8th, GUC reached its daily limit at the closing price, but the company did not consistently demonstrate an agreeable attitude.
• The “AI” is an explicit knowledge for today, while GUC is a company of project based. 
• GUC’s monthly revenue decreased by 22.15% YoY in November 2023.