Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Feb 4, 2024

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Q423 revenues of $6.2 billion, $100 million above the guided midpoint, up 6% QoQ and up 10% YoY
• Q124 guidance was for $5.4 billion at the midpoint, down 13% QoQ and flat YoY.
• We forecast 2024 Data Center growth of >70% YoY with potential for further upside

By Douglas O’Laughlin, Fabricated Knowledge

• TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.

• TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.

• Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.

By Douglas O’Laughlin, Fabricated Knowledge

• Intel reported earnings last week. Intel was one of my favorite stocks last year, and I wrote about it here in “Is This the Intel Inflection”, where I successfully called the bottom in the stock.
• It’s worked pretty well, even against the SOXX index since then.
• I’ll summarize my thesis back then, update you now on what I think about Intel, and write about results and read-throughs.

By Jim Handy, Objective Analysis

• Samsung’s earnings was recently reported, with memory revenues up nearly 50% in the fourth quarter
• This gain has been driven by very strong growth in AI and a normalization of inventory levels
• The memory business is approaching positive margins once again, and SK hynix is already profitable

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY
• Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.
• The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. 

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• TSMC: +13.5% ADR Premium, Historically High Spread Represents Short Opportunity
• UMC: -0.9% ADR Discount, Results Tomorrow Could Open Up Trade Opportunity
• ASE: +9.1% Premium, Historically High But Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• UMC & Mediatek Results Today in Taiwan, Samsung Also Reporting; Taiwan AI Names Flying; Himax & Novatek Top Losers Ahead of Results.
• Semiconductor Surge: Southeast Asia Taking Center Stage Amid Taiwan’s Geopolitical Shift
• First Run of Tech/Semis’ Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

By Patrick Liao

• MediaTek expects a reduced DOI level in 2024F while maintaining operating expenses and pricing discipline in 2023.
• The upgrade cycle has begun for devices equipped with AI functions. The Dimensity 9300 is just the first edge AI product for smartphones. 
• MediaTek does not predict a significant increase in demand and expects a steady demand for smartphones. 

By William Keating, Ingenuity

• Q423 revenues of $2.49 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3.6% QoQ but down 15.6% YoY. Net income was $583 million, down $158 million QoQ.
• Current quarter guidance of $2.3 billion, down 8% QoQ and also down around 5% YoY
• Interesting Q&A discussion on backlog. KLAC’s order book is risker than their peers due to their shorter lead times. Something to watch…

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

• Mediatek’s results for 4Q23 exceeded expectations; Forward guidance also suggests that consensus forecasts for 2024 may need to be revised upward.
• Foresees the start of its “next growth phase” in 2024, with AI influencing mobile upgrades and the introduction of new products in late 2025, indicating potential growth through 2026E.
• Mediatek indicated that AI interest will drive high-end mobile devices to gain market share in 2024E.