Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Jan 7, 2024

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • After a trial that dragged on for close to five years, the US DoJ case against Fujian Jinhua heard closing arguments in September 2023
  • Co-Defendant UMC already settled with Micron over two years ago. The two companies have since gone on to further expand their business relationship 
  • The surprise settlement with Fujian Jinhua may help smooth the path for Micron’s troubled operations in China

By Douglas O’Laughlin, Fabricated Knowledge

  • The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.
  • Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.
  • Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • Ushio has tied up with Applied Materials (AMAT) to develop lithography systems for package substrates using AMAT’s Digital Lithography Technology.
  • This should keep the focus on Ushio’s more advanced technologies (which also include EUV mask inspection light sources) and its potential to rebound with the semiconductor cycle.
  • The shares have dropped back 10% since mid-December, providing an entry point. 3Q results are scheduled to be announced on February 9.

By Scott Foster, LightStream Research

  • The gradual upward trend in monthly sales, which has continued through November, has further to go in our estimation. 
  • At 22x EPS guidance for FY Mar-24, the shares are at the low end of their 5-year P/E range.
  • Guidance remains unchanged. 3Q results are due to be announced at the end of January

By Patrick Liao


By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • From a growth forecast of >20% YoY just two months ago, 2024 is now pegged as a low-to-no growth year
  • This will be a big negative for the likes of Infineon, ST Microelectronics, NXP, Globalfoundries and HH Grace, among others. 
  • Our anticipated gloomy Q423 earnings season just got a whole lot gloomier

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • On January 4th, Microsoft announced a design change for PCs whereby a new physical key will be added to PC keyboards; the Microsoft Copilot key.
  • Microsoft Copilot will become a must-have for companies in our view. Initial Copilot capabilities can dramatically improve worker productivity and this should help drive AI PC upgrades for the industry.
  • CES 2024 Jan 9th – 12th will showcase AI PC models sporting Intel’s Core Ultra processors and Microsoft’s new Copilot key. We also update our Dell vs. Taiwan PCs trade.

By Patrick Liao

  • Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
  • In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.

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